2013 Toscana CC 1st Quarter Report

April, 2013

*To view my entire Quarterly Report, please select "View PDF Document" located to the right of this page under my photo.

Dear Toscana Resident:

After a down cycle in the Real Estate market for the past 5 years, the trend is moving to the positive.  The national, state and local real estate markets indicate this is the time for buyers to purchase a home. It is also a time for sellers who have been waiting for the right time to sell as inventory is very low and the demand for homes remains high.

The housing market is realizing annual gains not seen since 2006 and California prices have posted double digit gains for the past eight consecutive months. Six of the top seven cities who saw list prices jump more than 20% are in California. Buyers are getting into bidding wars as the house hunter frenzy continues. These gains are still 21.4% lower than they were at the peak of the market in June of 2006.

In Coachella Valley, single family homes sold for an average $451,000 in January of this year compared to last year, up from $293,000. For condos, the difference is $241,000 up from $205,000. February prices for single family were $541,000 and Condos were $235,000.

The number of sales is constrained due to lack of inventory, difficulty in loans to appraisals and reduced loan incentives on the part of the bank. The increase in median prices is a result of stronger sales of higher priced homes. Sales of homes over $500,000 posted a 31% increase while homes under $300,000 were down 27%. Housing inventory is down 39% from a year ago. In the desert, there are 3526 homes on the market. This is down from 9600 homes in January of 2011. The California's housing market shows an estimated 10.9% increase in value for 2013 and an expected increase of 5.7% in 2014.

Consumers in the real estate market consist of 30% move-up buyers, 25% new home buyers, 20% investors, 8% luxury, 8% retirees and 3% are international. Nearly 40 percent of the sellers are planning to purchase another home with over 50% staying in the same county. Since 2005, the statewide median price has declined 39% from $522,579 to $319,340 in 2012. The 30 year fixed has dropped from 5.87% to 3.66%. These declines have increase buyer affordability from 15% to 49%.  

This real estate market cycle started to stabilize the end of 2011. Since then, home prices have been solid and broad based with 62 percent of all US metro areas showing a rise in price in 2012.

Equity sales in California now make up two thirds of all home sales for the first time since April of 2008. Equity sales were less than half of the sales in February of 2012. Short sales are down to 19.9%, a drop from 24.8% a year ago. Bank owned sales are down from 28% to 13.7%

New housing starts are up 27.7% from a year ago. Housing permits are up 33.8% from a year ago and new home sales are up 15.6%.  Existing home sales are up 10.2% with pending sales up 9.5%.

In the desert, the total sales in the first quarter were down 4% from last year. The major reason is the lack of inventory of the properties the buyers prefer at the price they are willing to pay. Home sales under $500,000 are down 6.1% as investors were given the opportunity to buy foreclosed homes in bulk, reducing the inventory of these foreclosed homes. Many investors are leasing the homes rather than putting them back on the market. Home sales over $500,000 are up 5.6% due to buyers coming into the market place willing to pay more for the home they prefer. Home sales over $1,000,000 are down 17.6%.

The average sales price in the desert in 2012 was $303,011 for a 1991 square foot home at approximately $152.24 per square foot. During the first quarter of 2013, the numbers are $346,779 for 1974 square feet and $175.67 per square foot. Sales prices overall in the desert are up 14.4%.

As we study the country club real estate market, we begin to see how some communities are selling more homes and prices are increasing while others remain somewhat sluggish. Knowing the difference in each of these market areas is important for your real estate professional to know in order to help you find excellent buys where the appreciation in price has either not yet taken place or shows better value.

Included with this quarterly report is a new addition: the average sales price comparison between prices in 2012 compared to 2013 in the 21 country clubs I track. Country Club sale prices are up in 14 out of the 21 communities. The luxury country club market is showing double digit gains and yet million dollar sales are off 17.6% from a year ago. The average price of homes over $1 million is $2,071,578 compared to the 1st quarter in 2012 when the average was $1,689,464.

Toscana has shown the greatest increase in sales during the first quarter. With 23 resales in the past 6 months, over 27 new homes under construction, the market has clearly continued to improve in Toscana since 2010. The Yearly Country Club Annual Sales included in this report shows a steady increase each year. In 2012, 29 resale homes sold. To date for 2013, 10 homes have sold in just the first 3 months of the year. The average sales price is $2,176,500 compared to $1,771,672 for 2012.